Can the "one-step" multi-crystal stay ahead in the next few years?

In the photovoltaic industry, single crystal components and multi-crystal components have always been competing with each other, who can better meet the future market demand? Over the past few years, relatively small single crystal components have been promoted in market share, such a change is the beginning of the long-term reverse of the single crystal, or is it the short one in the competition? 

 

A number of industry insiders say photovoltaic modules, in essence, is a new kind of power generation equipment, price is the key to whether the market, because the electricity energy products no personalized experience to speak of, there is only in the national, unified voltage and frequency. Only by twisting the "cost" of "cost", can you see the haze of the single polymorphic component of the photovoltaic module. 

 

In 2015, the single-crystal force redivided into the first quarter of 2017, and the single-crystal silicon wafers in the pv market continued the hot trend of demand in 2016. Industry research groups predict that the lack of a single crystal silicon wafer will continue until the second quarter of the new production capacity of the two large single-crystal silicon chip plants in longji and central. As leading projects to promote, and market demand for monocrystalline silicon slice, the single crystal products for shout hot, you have to cover originally occupied the main market of polycrystalline products trend. 

 

Looking back over the past decade of the photovoltaic industry, the single crystal hot market has sprung up in 2015. According to data released by EnergyTrend, the proportion of single-crystal silicon tablets rose to 18% in 2015, and the proportion of polysilicon tablets fell to 76%. In the past year, the proportion of single-chip cities has climbed to more than 20 per cent. 

 

For the rapid development of the single crystal, China pv industry association deputy secretary-general shi-jiang wang said: "the single crystal products from 2015 began to rise, the key is to drive costs down by technological breakthroughs, characterized by two aspects, the first domestic trades.the line from mortar to the transition of the diamond wire cutting, the cutting efficiency is improved by more than 50%, the second is based on continuous crystal pulling process, raise the productivity of the monocrystalline silicon rods, yield improved, reduce the cost." 

 

According to pvp-tech, the diamond cutting has the characteristics of cutting speed, small diameter, cutting process without mortar and low metal impurity. In mid-2014, the domestic single crystal silicon chip leading enterprises represented by longji and zhonghuan successively realized the introduction of the vade-cutting, and realized the release of production capacity in 2015. Longji statement announced that in 2014, has put a king kong line from 190 m to reduce the slice thickness is 110 m, was due to the downstream battery manufacturers are not willing to accept a thin silicon wafer, but king kong line section of import, under the condition of the device does not increase, greatly increased capacity. In 2015, longji announced the success of the whole transformation, and on the basis of further perfecting the process, other companies began to invest and the proportion continued to rise. In 2016, there was an outbreak. 

 

Black silicon cracking polycrystalline for "king kong wire cutting" pain "" king kong wire cutting is a major breakthrough in single crystal authors, but the introduction of this new technology to the polysilicon production process, but once in the water", vice President of poly golden concord Lv Jinbiao introduction, "simply put, monocrystalline silicon ingot and polycrystalline silicon ingot in the lattice structure, the differences between the internal dopant, lead to king kong line into polycrystalline silicon slice, too bright and clean surface, formation of subsequent battery technology challenge." 

 

In order to solve the polycrystalline for "king kong wire cutting", China‘s polysilicon manufacturers already in global pioneered in 2016, "" black silicon technology, through the black silicon pile not only realizes the polycrystalline silicon slice of the volume of the can during the introduction of" king kong wire cutting technology, and the polycrystalline silicon cells in photovoltaic power conversion rate increases more than 0.3%. 

 

Lv Jinbiao said: "the technical route, by using the king kong line + wet black + the PERC technology can make polycrystalline silicon cells reached 19.5%, the king kong line + + the PERC dry black silicon technology of single crystal cell efficiency is 20%." 

 

"In polysilicon without using" diamond wire cutting + black silicon "before, the cost of single polycrystalline silicon slice is compressed to 0.6 yuan per next film, which has break through the power generation side single crystal components KWH cost tied polycrystalline red line components. Poly golden concord in polycrystalline mass quantity during the ‘diamond wire cutting + black silicon, around 0.5 yuan per piece of polysilicon wafer cost reduction. In this case, the polysilicon price is about 1.1 yuan lower than the single crystal. The polycrystalline components back to 2015 years ago, than single crystal clear price advantage in cost." "Lu added. 

 

"The new technology to promote single-chip improved cost performance will be limited in the short term and will not change as much as the previous two years." GCL System Integration Technology Co., Ltd., executive director and chief Technology officer ZhengJia Town believes that in the next few years monocrystalline and polycrystalline keep the proportion of notoginseng market pattern, the possibility of further increase polycrystalline space, its dominant market position will not change. 

 

According to the latest market quotation in March 2017, the spread of single crystal silicon wafers has reached 0.17 usd per piece due to the continuous shortage of monocrystalline silicon chips, which is higher than the standard value difference of 0.1 usd. The following monocrystals want to increase their cost performance, and they need to rely on new technologies to reduce their costs. 

 

Although the recent market for single crystal sings many days, but cannot ignore the top 10 major pv manufacturers and other second-line manufacturers of production capacity still dominated by multi-crystal components. In order to enhance the competitiveness of multi-crystal components, the PERC technology has been applied to the domestic first-line pv manufacturers such as jinko, hanhua, artesz and tianhe, so as to improve the efficiency of polycrystalline conversion. 

 

In May 2016, crystal energy announced that it had entered a mass production phase with high efficiency polycrystalline cells with PERC and black silicon technology, and the conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic cells was increased to over 20.5% in the future. In June 2016, hanhua new energy said its standard PERC multi-crystal component conversion efficiency reached 19.5% and power reached 301W. In August 2016, artez said that the use of wet-process black silicon technology combined with vajra could make the conversion efficiency of multi-crystal cells up to 19 percent, and the superposition of PERC technology could increase one point to 20 percent. 

 

In this situation, Corrine EnergyTrend analyst Lin is expected this year and next black silicon products will clearly peatlands, polycrystalline silicon solar cell can accept kong line of polycrystalline silicon slice, can drop in overall polycrystalline component costs US $0.015 / W, compete with the height of the single crystal market share growth. 

 

"Leader" chastened in addition to benefit from the king kong line process priority progress, such as single crystal in the past two years the rapid development of another important driving is maximum use of the "leader plans". 

 

In June 2015, the national energy administration approved the advanced technology photovoltaic demonstration base of 3GW of shanxi datong coal mining subsidence area, and the front-runner program was officially opened. In May 2016, the second batch of 5.5gw of frontrunners was announced, with a total of 8.5 GW in huge market, attracting competition from industry companies. Unlike in the past, technology has become one of the important indicators of price competition. 

 

According to the documents issued by the energy bureau, "leader" advanced technology product should reach the following indicators: silicon battery components and single crystal silicon cell component of photoelectric conversion efficiency reached 16.5% and 17%, respectively. 

 

Lv Jinbiao recalls: "when the leader plans to roll out at that time, in order to get a bigger development space for single crystal, in formulating efficiency standards, improve on the efficiency of single crystal components required is lower than polycrystalline components. Originally single polycrystalline components the gap between conversion efficiency over 1%, but released documents, both by only 0.5%, specific to 60 cell standard components, total power difference between single polycrystalline only 5 watts." 

 

"Policy tilt, make single crystal manufacturers do not need to add the PERC can meet the requirements of leader, and polycrystalline if you want to meet the requirements is relatively difficult, so the leader program in 2016, the single market share gradually rise." Lv Jinbiao stressed that polycrystalline technology route has huge development potential and price advantage, in the next leader or supercar plans, technology updates and standard should be made to the single polycrystalline 60 pieces of the total power of the battery slice of standard components is set to 15 watts. This will enable the two sides to form real technological competition and promote the development of the industry. 

 

In February 2017, there was talk of a "photovoltaic superfrontrunner programme" in the national energy administration, which is said to be the first "super leader base" to be announced. According to the market rumors, the leading "photovoltaic super plan" is "leader plans to" upgrade, will through the way of construction of super leader base support has scale of production capacity, but the capacity is not yet released, on behalf of photovoltaic products scale application of advanced technology, and the size of each base is GW level. 

 

The overrunners plan is yet to be decided, and the industry is already in the dark, and the debate over rules and standards has begun. Leader planning, industry analysts said, was meant to take into account the component conversion efficiency principle of normal distribution, whether single crystal, polycrystalline, or film, should be identified in the respective technical route in the minority of efficient products meet the requirements of the leader plans to lead to efficient development of photovoltaic products.